Ten Revolutions to Come

The future will be very different in 20 years time. These are my predictions of the most important changes in the computer industry about live in 20 years. This entire blog is devoted to tracking and providing evidence for these 10 beliefs.

1. The Mobile Phone will not be a Device

Since 'bricks' were first issued to yuppies in the 80s, mobile phones have been electronic devices. They have their own buttons, battery, screen and audio I/O. In 2020, mobile devices will be integrated into our clothes and bodies; and will be a mashup of technologies in our clothes and bodies.
(Of course, my Dad will be 88 in 2020, and he'll probably still have a GPRS-based clamshell).

Key topics:

• bio-computer interfaces
• PAN protocols
• alternatives to silicon-based computing
  

2. We won't ever run out of juice

All devices, except those we plug in the wall, are based on batteries. This is the biggest drag on development right now, and manufacturer's responses have been to increase the effectiveness of batteries by increasing lifetime and decreasing drain. This is unsustainable, and equivalent to teaching telegraph operators to tap quicker.
By 2020, we'll see the battery become a back-up only component, with the power needed for digital communications on the move coming from other sources; either for the communications themselves, or as a mechanism to charge up far more frequently than we discharge.

Key Topics:

• battery technologies
• remote power
  

3. We won't need to talk to communicate

Placing a brick (no matter how sleek) to the ear, or furiously typing on a keypad, or writing with a pen, is old fashioned and has to go. Instead, the most normal means of communication will be silent and based on thought, or mental articulation; or automatic.

Talking will still happen, just as people fly to see each other in business meetings; but will be a pleasurable luxary, not a necessity.

Although in early stages, the ability for the brain to communicate with a computer without fingers or voice is hapenning. This will get much better.

Key topics:

• bio-computer interfaces especially brain-computer interfaces
  

4. We won't need passwords

The Network will simply know who we are, so there'll be no need to verify our identify. It will be like picking up my kids from school -- they know me; that's as secure as they, or I, need.

Key topics:

• Identity
  

5. Computers will know everything about us, and we'll be happy about it

The privacy lobbyists hate Google for perpetually gathering any useless piece of information about us and using it target advertising at us. This is not going to change and increasingly companies (and governments) are getting more and more infromation about us and storing it. The privacy forums will eventually have to give up, every last nuance of what we do will live in a database somewhere, and algorithms will continue to evolve to make sense of it all.

Key topics:

• data storage capabilities
• data manipulation and algorithms of unstructured forms
• privacy legislation
• benefits of an omniscient network
  

6. Computers won't need much space or power

"Silicon chip inside her head is set to overload". We've always assumed that silicon computers need to be near us, but this is disappearing. Google docs, remote desktop, Zoho, and other online tools will do the clever stuff, and we will move towards the dumb terminal client.

Key topics:

• SaaS
• Grid computing
• Remote software
  

7. Bye-bye mouse, bye-bye keyboard

How long has it been that we type with our fingers and slide our fingers on a trackpad, or worse scratch a hemisphere on the table? We'll have better interfaces with our computers than this which will be more intuitive and faster for our main locations.

Key topics:

• Novel interfaces and IO devices
• Haptics, gentures
• Video recognition
  

8. Bandwidth will always be a restriction

My most accurate forecast ever as an analyst was an IP traffic forecast in 2001. It was a hockey stick. My belief here is that applications grow to fill the bandwidth made available, and bandwidth follows applications. As we get more bandwidth, applications will evolve to use more. The net result is that we will never have enough bandwidth.

Key topics:

• bandwidth hungry applications
• what would we do with 1Tbps each, anywhere?
  

9. We'll pay more

The market for communication will increase in revenue because we (as consumers and businesses) will pay for the value it provides. As in an earlier blog today, I show that Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs puts communications at the heart of human needs, and the easier it becomes, the more we'll depend on it, and the more it will have value to us.

As digital communications gets better, we'll be prepared to invest a greater proportion of our investments into it, as measured by the industry revenue as percent of GDP.

Key topics:

• Market evidence of more money
• What will cause the next step jump in peoples' desire to pay money?
  

10. We'll lose touch with reality, and be OK with that

The distinction between the real world and virtual worlds will change. Sitting permanently in a darkened bedroom, any netizen geek will tell you that they are a global jet setter.

This prediction is looking at attitudes to the virtual world, and the technologies that allow it to look and feel more and more like the real world.

Key topics:

• virtual worlds' acceptance on society
• making the virtual experience more real